kirk building his stake, page-3

re: cix goldman sachs barny - i follow CIX very closely.

for a while i loved them - now i am not so sure.

i have access to gsjbwere insto research - have just confirmed that they do not cover CIX.

about three weeks ago i saw a Merrill Lynch note on CIX. It was based on a meeting with Nick Kirk and they had put quite a bit of thought into the CIX business. It did contain a hypothetical valuation. . .. but was not really endorsed by ML. It was more a case of "If CIX meets its business plan. . . then this is what it would be worth."

I don't recall (SORRY) what this "valuation" was - but certainly well north of the current share price. COULD have been 51 cents. . . . will try to check monday but don't have access til then.

personally - i continue to believe that the only value in CIX is as a possible takeover target. as an operational business i now think that they came to the market 2 years too late. . . . current pricing in commercial insurance is really bad - prices fell sharply again this june after big falls last year. CIX has no real competitive advantage - in fact, their cost structure (a full insurance company servicing relatively little revenue) actually leaves them very badly positioned for winning business on price. AND YET - in June they did win business on price.