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    One thing I tried to be clear about is that my 1/3rd odds of losing my money, is not something I've "worked out", it's a guess. What I'm hoping is that it's an overly pessimistic guess. This whole opportunity is one that I have very, very little certainty about (both in terms of the potential upside, and the likelihood of the downside eventuating).

    With such little certainty, the only way I will venture my money, is if even a highly conservative evaluation indicates a profitable return. I am hoping my 1/3rd guess is highly conservative, as well as the magnitude and timeliness of the upside.

    But, let's be clear, it's all guesswork.
    Last edited by MarsC: 23/02/16
 
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