Captain, I'm loading up on STO long with a big position. Admittedly this is more the traders instinct in me than the technical analyst. I went in too early 2 weeks ago when the share price looked like breaking back up after that large capital raising. The chart hadn't confirmed at the time and I acknowledged the chance for one more leg down in previous posts but I had wanted to get set once the CR was done and so took confidence from that. Got smashed after that Opec meeting 1.5wks ago. It was a bit undisciplined of me.
Again the weekly chart hasn't yet confirmed an entry so I'm being a bit aggressive again and I've taken an even bigger position this time. My sense is that capitulation has occurred since that Opec meeting. With capital raised between $3.85 and $4.10, that's where the institutions are positioned I consider the big fall last week wasn't funds selling down but margin calls and stops on leveraged positions that got cleaned out. I think it's done now. It was tested by that big Dow fall over the weekend and held, just dipped one cent below the Opec low and recovered, so that gave me a lot of confidence. I've just decided I want to be set in this before the Fed and before any Xmas rally.
Not my normal chart generated entry, so I'm wary of encouraging anyone to follow me.. The target low on the chart was $3.00 where a lot of support is, although might be some stops below that. So if this rally fails it could run further, but there's a lot more upside and tan downside from here. Not following any oil charts so not analysing this too much, just been watching the stock it for a long time and balance of probabilities have tipped me in.
I hated having to buy today after a 6% rise but I don't want to chase it. Bought some yesterday, today and final lot to buy tommorrow. Haven't looked at other oilers as STO it seems the one that's oversold, that's had it's capital raising and is not going to put out a surprise CR when it's SP recovers a bit and it's a large cap stock with good dividend that the fund managers will buy. My position is as much stock specific as sector.
NST
I reviewed my gold stock comments above of Friday 4th December, two weeks ago. Quite happy in hindsight with those comments versus what's played out. The continuing worry is NST though. In spite of two weeks up, it's in a larger frame downtrend. $3.26 in October was classic Wave 5 peak and now falling sharply. Look at the weekly chart and you can see since that peak its had a lower high, then lower low. It will run back up into a Wave B at some point, which could be from here, but more likely off that support at $2.20. That's unclear yet. You're Van Eck trade could still work and just extend this two week counter-trend back up another week or so, but need to be wary of a break-down in the price.
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