Why the hard landing?

If you read the analyst report- It had a discovery at sealion at about 8c value- Read the australian article and it says not much can happen with the oil drilling- prospects too small and only had a small %.

In fact- the drilling was part of the hibiscus deal 16 months ago when oil price was up and they thought that buying the drill rig from TDO was a steal. Turns out they paid through the roof for an non-commercial asset- an obselete drill rig (which has halved in value)- and a prospect which has just proven to be non-commercial.

So Hibiscus has forked over nearly $80million for assets that would today not find a buyer- even for $1.

TDO has rolled the cash from that deal in to a gas permit(cost-$0)- shot seismic(and farmed down to beach) and have a prospect with 1.4TCF RECOVERABLE.

There looks like
-fantastic seal
-proximity to infrastructure
-shallow water(low drill cost)
-massive short term shortage on the east coast gas market- (articles galore-- DYOR)


means the majors will be at the door to drill ASAP.

Recovery of seismic costs-??
Free carried drill of well(s)??
CASH COMPONENTS??
Free carried on seismic to the south??

A good deal will value TDO's held prospect at 70-80M on the value of the deal-
150M on the potential of a discovery
400-600M on the good chance (gas prospects have higher strike rates than oil) of a discovery

Soooooooo....
TDO could be worth-
25c in 3 months
75c in 9 months
$2 in 12-18 months.....

And they are 4c........

Please DYOR- all of this information is on hand if you care to read the annual reports- the quarterly- and analyst/journalist articles.