Nickel Q3 forecast 2015 from Fastmarkets, page-17

Westtrader

sadly - im not able to get hard data on actual stock levels inside "china inc" ....the Anakie reports are a paid service ......and mere mortals get them maybe a couple of moths later.....

not sure I agree with your premise "restocking process - then rebound in inventory" .......as intermediary's only restock (normally) when they see an uptick in future orders ........

the "price" normally lags inventory reductions ......so I rekon we have circa 4-6 months to go before phy prices move (substantially) higher.....go back throu the historical data - and look at weks supply versus price .........


old charts .....but useful

http://www.zealllc.com/2006/lmestock.htm

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3208.html


the other factor that is nigh on impossible to estimate - is what is the actual net position of companies like Glenocre ? ......and highly leveraged metal ETF's (ie any increase in debt costs could cause some of these to have to liqudate physical.......)


I rekon with 100k T "removed" and slower ramp in Indo ..........and "flat" final demand (see last WSA preso) ....... ......it will happen over next 6 months or so ......just my "imho" ..

rgds
V_H