Egg fully priced in!, page-2

I have been waiting long time for the company to come good. Hopefully we get some good news when results are released. Here's my back-of-the-envelope potential valuation of the company:

Revenue $189m (based on last report less 10%)
EBITDA $19 (assume 10% margins)
Value $113 (@ 6x multiple)
Excess cash $19m (56m current assets less 37m total liabilities)
Estimated value: 133m
Potential upside of 117% based on market cap of $61m

Issues:
- Revenue keeps falling making it hard to value
- Current margins are nowhere near above (Photon I believe averaged 15-20% in the good times)
- What is management planning with the cash? If an acquisition can we trust them not to overpay?

A buyback at current levels assuming the above fundamentals will generate significant returns for shareholders. With STW rationalising it portfolio there could also be opportunities to pick up assets on the cheap. Hopefully major holders like NAOS are discussing these ideas with management.

All in all I am still holding for now and hopeful for a better year ahead