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clock Created with Sketch. 17/06/15
13:01
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Originally posted by stevea171
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Medusa is well undervalued based on known H1 and Q3 results and forecast Q4 results giving FY profit around US$52 million, with a forward EPS of US 26-27c (A 33.4c) for a P/E ratio of around 2.6.So the sp could rise by 3x or 4x from here and still have a lowish EPS with further progress expected in the next full year starting in July when the production ramp up should continue to the likely range of 130 - 140k oz with an expected huge further increase in profitability even if gold remains around the $1200 mark as now. ***** The Co-O budget for 2015/16 financial year is currently in preparation and the production guidance for next year will be announced during the current quarter. (ie this month) ***** Forecast H2 production and FY outcome based on: Q3 production of 23.9k oz (actual) and Q4 production of 30.1k oz due to increased supply of ore to Co-O mill from L8 shaft capacity increase from 13/1/2015. FY production: 102,000 oz (guidance 95 - 100k oz). Description.......... Unit...........H2 14/15.... H1 14/15.... H1 2013 Production......... ounces........54,000........ 47,877....... 26,089 Cash costs......... US$/oz..........$381........... $381......... $422 Gold sold.......... ounces......... 54,000.........50,682....... 27,334 Gold price received US$/oz....$1,200........ $1,234....... $1,304 Gold price received US$/oz....$1,200........ $1,234....... $1,304 Revenues ...............US$........$64.8 M..... $62.2 M....... $34.0 M EBITDA ..................US$.......................... $39.9 M....... $19.4 M NPAT .....................US$.........$27.0 M.... $24.8 M....... $13.0 M EPS(basic) ............ US$.........$0.139....... $0.128........ $0.067 FY 14/15 NPAT estimate: $51.8 M FY EPS: US 26.7c (A 33.4c @ average A$1.25 to US$1) Share price: A 87c P/E ratio: 2.6
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So if they are getting a margin of $200USD (optimistic case) on 125koz, then is that $25m USD EBIT, or about $32m AUD EBIT? SP doesn't seem significantly out of whack at current levels at $180m MC to me. Keen to hear thoughts.
