I read the announcement as:
MOP (Sylvenite) Phase 1 & 2
Total Investment: US$640m (AUD$771m @ 0.83)
Average Annual Revenue: US$237m (AUD$286m)
Average Annual Profit: US$104m (AUD$125m)
SOPM (Polyhalite) Phase 1 & 2
Total Investment (including Phase 1): US$1.36billion (AUD$1.64b)
Average Annual Revenue (incl. Phase 1): USD$784m (AUD$945m)
Average Annual Profit (incl. Phase 1): USD$495m (AUD$723m)
Interesting they’ve used annual gross profit. The (for example) $133 million per year difference (between this and revenue in MOP) looks enough to include operating expenses at (say) $100/tonne with another $13m for further expenses). In the below I’ve allowed the following to derive Net Income:
- Administration of $10m per year;
- Taxes 30%; and
- Interest Rate 7%
Even (post meeting resolutions) with the share registry at 600m shares, that’s NET profit per share of:
Phase 1: 32.2c per share. P/E 10 = $3.22 per share (Phase values are basically pro-rata from phase 2 so may be lower i.e. 20-25c EPS or $2.00 - $2.50 per share at a guess.)
Phase 2: 64.0c per share. P/E 10 = $6.40 per share
Note that this is just the Zhilyanskoye part of the SP equation.
Value then has to be added for Chelkar (similar size to Zhilyanskoye I believe) and Satimola (6 to 8 times larger than Zhilyanskoye)
Very encouraging that we are already in discussions with an EPC contractor. Indicates things are to get moving quickly. Being that the company has heavy Chinese backing (incl. Chinese govt.) I expect financing will be a relative fait accompli. I have always suspected that madame was installed to ensure the Chinese get control of this Potash for their own market and avoid them having to go to North America, etc. Likewise engaging consultants now obtaining the JORC