re: av (another) look at this!
Yeah I thought I should have done that after I went to bed...wonder what the optimal versus the possible spacing is. Those acreages are different from the ones I got from the PGS. Actually PGS says the East Esponda is approx 10000 acreas and West Esponda 14900 acres (converted from hectares). In that case, you could fit a whole lot more wells than even that. I've just used current spacing and scaled it up. If the cram them in West Esponda could fit 186 wells...that would produce quite a bit but, while its legally allowed, I wonder whether its economically efficient. Still would like to get some flow rates from at least Esponda. Note, Oriva project as a whole was originally projected to get 50000 Mcf per MONTH and it now produces at 35000MCF (not including currently dewatering wells) a QUARTER...still profitable but way below what they hoped. My impression is that we have to be wary of in ground total resource estimates (which are based on several assumptions and don't necessarily indicate flow potential) and look more at the flow rates. I think using the Western Gas average in the area may be the best way. But you're right Poyndexter, IF they get good flow rates and fill up Esponda tenement with couple of hundred wells it could be an excellent investment. Think the current price is reasonable given market cap and worth a punt if you think the flow rates will be good. Given underperformance of Oriva compared to expectations at the start and suspicions about the resource quality, I'll keep an eye on this. One thing to note, the coal seem thinkness in area are less than expected for a merged Big George seam, which is the major target, in the last several West Esponda drilling reports. I assume we want Big George to be as thick as other places in the Powder River where Western Gas are getting their average flow rates (calculated above) to get really excited.
From website "The Big George Seam is completely merged in the Western Gas area but splits into an upper and lower unit in the western portion of Kennedy Oil's area. Where the Big George Seam is merged, its thickness is greater than 80 feet, and where split its total thickness is approximately 65 feet."
PGS Price at posting:
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