The Fat Lady hasn't sung yet Blackhat, although she's threatened to mount the stage a few times of late.
1200BOW &75 boo flow-back in the 1st 8 days of "optimal" reservoir performance. 229 BOW {& some oil
apparently} currently, after god-knows how many work-overs, shut ins, leaky frac trees, parts lost down hole,
well-bore blockages, addition of nitrogen lift etc etc.10 weeks down the track & at 229 BOWPD V
1200 BOWD 1st 8 days.
By my estimates of how much water is left-- Oilex just say that 75% of frac water has been recovered but
NOT how much additional water was added to flush the blockages. So 75% of what and how much water
remains to be flowed back. If they say that 75% of TOTAL water has been recovered then that leaves about
15% still to be recovered {90% water recovered sufficient to conduct production test}. I estimate TOTAL
water used as 22K barrels initially + 11000 barrels to flush the well. That leaves about 8K bow to be
still recovered or 7K at 90%. 229BOWPD currently being recovered should take 30 days. If they can
open the choke further then should be sooner.
If the Fat Lady has not given an update in about 3-4 weeks time, then imo, any time thereafter she
has already sung for mine.
I still remain open on the production test-hopefully we at least get to that point and get some results
in the next month. I haven't given up on the field until I see those numbers. I think it is fair to say
at this juncture that 77H has indeed been a {painful} learning curve. I contend that it was probably
not fractured well { incorrect propane/water mix in lieu of 300% more light oil than expected} and
many mistakes have been made along the way even with SLB in control. So, I wait on the numbers
good or bad.
GLTAH
OEX Price at posting:
9.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
