enough time for a counter bid?, page-9

"The way LNG sp is skyrocketing lately they would have no trouble raising cash to make an offer or even scrip closed at $1.35 today!!!"

and isn't that an interesting scenario?

what, maybe 6mths ago one would have laughed at that - but now with LNG shares rocketing into blue sky, one would have to wonder?

I wonder how many of us would be willing to accept LNG scrip? would NHC accept LNG scrip??
how much of a premium above a cash offer would LNG need to offer?

all just speculation - but an interesting question.
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there is no doubt in my mind, that other parties are looking at WCL (because mgt have told us, and because they have gone public to the media)

so the prospect of rival bids is real.
the emergence of an actual rival bid, is not certain - we won't know that until we see the formal offer.

But we do know a number of things.
- L/B has put WCL into play.
- WCL will never be the same, if only because we now have a new largest s/h.
- we know that L/B has been told for "f" off- we know that because they have gone hostile, and are accusing WCL of misleading s/h in their Target Statement.
- We know that the L/B offer is well below valuation, because of a number of broker valuations, one of which is almost double the L/B offer.
- We know that WCL is simply a very juicy prize, having 51% of a GSA worth over $3.2B in revenue.
- we know WCL is almost unique (certainly for such a small company), with proven gas production, infrastructure in place to immediately ramp up to 30tj/d.
- we know that WCL will be able to fund the expansion needed to get production up to the 60tj/d level.
- we know that the Board has stated the Validation Report has confirmed their field development assumptions.
- We can be confident that the WCL business parties will be VERY unhappy with the prospect of an inexperienced, unknown entity like L/B getting control of their precious gas supply! The likes of GLNG, Santos and very much Mitsui, have a heck of a lot at stake.
- we know that very few, if any, shareholders have accepted the L/B formal offer.
- we know that L/B was very fortunate to entice a poor decision from EIT to obtain their pivotal stake.

imho, if L/B do not get acceptances by 24 June, they will have maybe 3 options.
1. walk away. in that case we will have a new 20% s/h. But that s/h will have not seat at the Board. They almost certainly would creep up the register and buy 3% every 6mths. So at some point they will get a board seat. But given the tight register, their buying would support the SP. And the Offer of 40c will underpin the SP also.

2. extend the 40c Offer - the most likely course. Because they will hope that no rival offer materialises, and s/h grow impatient and eventually accept their offer.

3. extend their offer and increase the bid. they might do this just to get the Board recommendation, and to get the acceptance of NHC. But I would think that an increase would be minimal, without any auction process arising.


If we all rush to accept the L/B Offer before it closes, then it may scare off a rival bid, if L/B appears to have a much larger stake than their current 20%.

A rival bid does not necessarily need to occur before 24 June - provided that L/B is not flooded with acceptances.

As mentioned previously, valuing WCL at less than the Petro non-offer when we didn't even have the GSA, makes the L/B bid pretty silly.

cheers