john risk - wheat price direction?, page-63

The story for basis is changing. As China deficits in production grow relative to demand growth, they'll continue to come to WA for their fill first. That means historic basis behaviour may sell you a dummy on future behaviour. Eg basis is strong atm for unsown crop. That's unusual.

Few are using SWAPS atm becuase of the strong basis. I'm betting basis will strengthen from here as our competitors crops aren't looking too flash (Black Sea). And biomass imagery on the Chinese wheat crop from Martell suggests the wheat crop is in poor shape relative to last year. Last year they came to WA to fill the gap. They'll invariably be back along with undernourished Egypt who has grown to assume the Ukraine would be a reliable supplier of wheat. Indonesian growth continues to accrue.

Good time to be a grain farmer in the premier wheat State of WA. Dreyfus about to invest in port capacity and upcountry along with Bunge.