john risk - wheat price direction?, page-59

  1. 2,642 Posts.
    Wheat is approaching a range where it is historically inexpensive compared to soymeal and soybeans, no real opportunity with soyoil as it must be outperforming the rest of the soy complex, may consider a position in wheat in the next 2 weeks, but there are some other good opportunities developing in other markets, so deciding on how much capital do dedicate to such trades can be tricky.

    I think the divergence between wheat and soybeans prices will be experiencing some significant resistance from here, and any further divergence should be short lived as we approach more extreme historic values.

    For anyone curious about it, monitor the prices over time.

    Mean reversion times range from 6 months to 24 months once the extreme point is in.

    I have my subjective average reversion point of wheat moving toward being half the price of a soybean contract.

    Wheat 670.25 USD

    Soybeans 1472.25 USD

    This is NOT trading advice.

    GLTA
 
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