bang, page-17

I'm not valuing OBL, I'm replying very specifically to your statement that a "sweet deal with Buru could see 10c".

You want to talk REY? When Buru "farmed into" REY's permits it went DOWN 25%. Most likely because of the legal wrangling using up limited funds. It was still massively down months after they finished their legals and announced what I thought was a fairly good result. It only went consistently back up to where it was before Buru bought in literally a full year afterwards (there was a spike that fizzled out half way).

You also can't look at REY as Buru valued them at least five times higher than OBL because they have proven exposure to prospective conventional oil which OBL doesn't. Derby is Laurel gas only.

You can't compare the marketcaps because the deals won't be on the same scale. It's not like OBL is going to get a $154M farm in deal like BRU. It's one block and OBL don't even own the majority of it. BRU had 100% of about 18 blocks and NSE 100% of 8.

I agree completely that if OBL got a $154M farm in it would go up past 4c. From memory the FMG deal was ~$15M.

So let's be very specific.

When FMG announced the farm in to OBL it spiked from ~2.5 to ~4.5 or an 80% jump. They were only one day spikes though, it was more reliably about 4c or 60% up.
Hrm, that's suspiciously close to my 72% average, looks like going by the historical facts wins out doesn't it?

Given that BRU went up 56%, NSE went up 89.5% and OBL went up 80% on their farm outs, I'm really pretty ok with saying 3.5c is a realistic target for OBL on a farm in deal given I've got numbers backing up my assertions and you're just pulling 10c from nowhere.

There are of course a lot of things that could affect it one way or the other. If it's like REY and there is a legal compromise with Buru that shareholders don't like it might go down like REY's 25% loss. I don't really think that will be the case. It will really depend on funding levels. If any farm out doesn't happen for another 6 months and things heat up and Buru has success in the Laurel OBL should rise farm out or not, and on farm out they should go higher and yes it will be above 3.5c.

But right now, from a 2c base with nothing much happening and an average farm out that is proportional to OBL like the FMG deal, then yeah it should be closer to 3.5c. Given your previous statements about it going "3c plus after grant" and that grant will "rerate the stock price" I'm pretty comfortable saying I'm not worried about it being closer to your figure.

I am however not talking about overall valuation which is patently obvious both from the context you provided "A sweet deal taking OBL to 10c" and the fact I only analysed farm out deals.