articles of interest - spx, page-14

this is a wot-happens-next study for monday...i do these regularly to find the levels that concur or conflict, agree or disagree with structure, with or against impulsive bid/offer pricing...even tho the chart is saying break-this-go-with-this, the levels themselves have distinct relationships...merely clues, a measurable road map is all.....it kinda neuters the gonad bias, excludes anecdotal lean....

in the first chart, there are two moves of equality, not unusual for this congestive periods, of themselves they suggest more upside, building a base....the question is how do they fit in with the other ratios and which ones dominate....

in the second chart the ratio is a typical extension inverted ratio....many times the spx cfd has run to an inverted ratio at 127.2 and then reveresed.....this applies to trend direction and extension against the larger trend while building a base to move back into the larger direction only in this instance the 127.2 has terminal upside not downside and it has tended to be dominant (over chart one's ratios) and if this was a daily ratio then i would consider it to be significant....context/relative size is vital here

in the third chart i am merely looking for clues that come after a significant hit (NFP/employment etc)....as news does not determin trend but can appear to if/when a (relative) high has already been put in-place (tick).... what the move should do is several-fold: close a gap-down (tick) bring impulsive pricing in either direction but not both (tick) add significant volume (tick) create measurable structure that is beyond coincidence (tick) have some accompanying anecdotal that is at an extreme (tick)

positions not shown

looking at the bias for balls, as they are, omitting fundamentals (which tend to lag):

20 weeks in a row bulls (AAII)have outpaced bears in sentiment readings (not really usuable for the next 30-50 points)

call options have hit peaks (not really reliable for timing or the next 30-50 points)

stocks above their 200 m/a is now 3 x divergent against higher highs in the S&P (again, not really useful for timing or the next 30-50 points)

15 min chart thurs/friday, the OEX was limp compared to broader S&P % basis...OEX should lead the way and if not, what's stopping its trend?

Goldman seen closing size longs late afternoon thursday (see Tim Heafke@FuturesNTN twitter) are they just clipping for protection?

runaway Transports upwards, low vix, high call options , SML index has been positively divergent to the S&P, so, anecdotally, trending pov, these things tend to say more of the same.....we'll need to see a strong pullback, maybe 6-8% and then gauge how distribution plays out

right now the distribution looks innocuous enough, again, looking at the ratios, the levels call for momentum in either direction and then a new set of measures begin....