esn & mkb - a comparative analysis, page-164

MeToo

The title would probably be “The pitfalls of stock forums”.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias

It seems the mods would prefer posts on the lines of "ESN with a PE 100 $1 stock Ive put the house on it its a sure thing" then factual substantiated information. There would definitely be a chapter on likeability and social cohesion with its impacts on decision making. Fantastic examples on stock forums!

I think about this joke when I read the ESN threads.

The Indian Chief thought that it was going to be a bad winter so he sent all the braves out to collect wood. As he watched them return laden with timber from the forest he suddenly felt that he ought to check his forecast so he phoned the local met office.

"Tell me, is it going to be a bad winter?"

"Yes" said the forecaster " it will be a bad one"

So the Chief told the braves that they didn't have enough wood and sent them back into the forest again. They returned with more wood but once again the Chief had doubts and he called the forecaster to confirm.

"It is going to be a really severe winter" replied the forecaster.

The Chief look at the wood store, decided that more was required and the braves were dispatched back in to forest. The Chief called the forecaster.

"Are you sure it's going to be a really severe winter"

"Look" said the forecaster "its definitely going to be the worst winter on record - the Indians are gathering wood like crazy!""

Something more serious 2013 ESN annual report NOTES 16 and 18 on page 42...