In 2012 I got absolutely desperate for share win, I had just lost $800,000 on PaperlinX and Gunns had just gone into receivership and another $400,000. Chalice gold was down etc etc So based on a tip I brought into an oil exploration company drilling in Tunisia. I brought in big as I needed to get out of trouble.
During the weeks of drilling I decided to check the success rate. Using only ASX anns I worked out the success rate was roughly 1 in 7 - 10. I have also monitored other oil exploration results since – Jacka etc
In a recent posting on hotcopper I asked the question if anyone had genuine stats on oil drilling success rates. Only 1 or 2 responses, none quoting stats but more ‘in their experience’ 1 in 12. I think in East Africa nearby oil blocks to processing wells ‘step outs’ was 1 in 3. He also mentioned BG Group have a run of 5 discoveries in a row running.
But I acknowledge the COS could be different. but I wouldnt mind knowing of genuine stats.
Even my old Patterson broker said these oil drilling situations come up all the time, and in his years of experience its better to buy on successful Ann at a premium.
Sure if they hit 65 m barrels of oil, a big sp increase will follow, the the opposite also happens. At least OXX have diversity, but it would seem over the the past 18 mths much of the cream of the pickings have been drilled without success. No doubt this is a controversial point.
Mgt have been outstanding in maintaining cash.
OXX Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
