Ann: Company Interview. Strong Outlook for end 2, page-12

re: Ann: Company Interview. Strong Outlook f... Strange trading today. Gold up, copper up, AUD down and OGC was up in overseas trade on double the usual volume of 2.3mill shares to A$1.77. Yet traders here are selling to 10c below the overseas price. Does someone here know something the overseas instos don't know? Not likely.

I can understand most other goldies coming off today’s highs because they are likely to be dropped from the ASX 200 list but OGC will not have that problem. The prospect of these stocks being removed from the ASX 200 must give extra ammunition to the selling including (and especially) short selling. It might be safer to avoid these until after the rebalance.

The bottom 10 in the list are the most likely to be dropped, especially those that have fallen by the most this qtr.
PRU, KCN, SBM AQG SLR and NST all sit in the bottom 10. MML is not far behind at 15.

OGC is no 21 from bottom but its mc was $456mill on that list and it has since climbed strongly to $527mill so it seems safe from any rebalance.

MML was $423mill and now at $352mill so it should escape but is more difficult to predict (bottom 5 in the list had mc’s averaging $225mill so MML looks reasonably safe based on that).

ABU was removed from its list earlier this year so its rebalancing effect is out of the way already.

OGC is highly unlikely to be dropped. Any positive turn in sentiment should allow OGC to climb without the drag created by selling related to a stock being dropped from the ASX 200 list.