sealink travel ipo closes early, page-8

Interesting points Ed,

I was also thinking about how many private holders may want to use this IPO as an exit and have discussed the matter with several people, including brokers.
Consensus, for what it is worth, is that there won't be a dump on float en masse (JMHO! DYOR!) In coming years there will be aging holders selling down for the cash, as you suggest.

It is the mass of these investors that will feed supply, but the pace will be a drip feed IMO so I am betting on a 'sustainable' supply that will be well met by demand.

Given the fundamentals of the coy and hence the desireability of the private script, large private investors should have had no difficulty transferring ownership off market (IMO) – so I don’t believe that this is any grand play by privates wanting out.

To paraphrase the prospectus, the IPO is for strengthening the balance sheet for future expansions. This IMO implies they will take on a fair amount of debt (as a money making business this should not be too difficult) and of course will no doubt be tempted to tap equity (one would hope via SPP’s). This activity will grow revenues and market cap, so the relative expense of ASX formalities will diminish in time IMO.

I agree that affordability of Diesel Vs. Overseas traveller’s spending power will be an interesting one to watch. There is also a large proportion of local customers in the mix, so the equation will take some working to determine what effect FX fluctuations have on our bottom line