Ashfield and TC , thank you asking me , but I am as uncertain as both of you as I have wrestled this for a while and you are both correct once the rights issue closes on the 28th, the share price could go either way certainly in the short term.
To my way of thinking this share price's movement up or down will be determined by any or all of the following which has already been stated by a lot of other commenters in this forum. 1) sliver price moving up to eventually getting to at least $30oz 2) cost of production 3) product levels once the ball mill is installed and operational in July as per the company's press .
The short answer is I don't know , if you believe that the fundamentals are there , which I believe they are , you should benefit from buying these shares through the rights issue at 13c.
However you can say " I might as well buy the shares on market as there is a good chance that I can get it at a price below 13c" , and you are correct . However there is another reason for taking up the rights issue, Magna . Remember what is not taken up goes to Magna and the great unknown is what will Magna's long term intention be if it gets a large share holding . I don't think it will be 42%, my guess is 22% to 25%.
I will be taking up the rights issue more so for the second reason Magna . Although I am confident that we will see a turn around once the ball mill is installed and hopefully it will be in July as stated by the company.
CCU Price at posting:
12.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held