open question...?, page-10

I have tried to remain positive on Thor’s outlook recently in the face of many obstacles. I have been curious to the motives behind posters comments, which one needs to be. I have wondered why people want to bag the company they are invested in so much when they are trying to negotiate funding to stay afloat, while at the same time there is a massive line up of buyers sitting there to pick up shares from anyone who will offload them cheaply.

But the reality is, if someone does know something positive about the funding situation and is praying on the uninformed, there is a leak and something seriously wrong with this company (something else seriously wrong).

It's time to stop hoping and start analysing.

If I was to look at this from a negative viewpoint, I would see a small mining company completely reliant on raising capital, over stretched, with marginal projects and average management, trying to raise capital from a shrinking pool with more competition for that capital than ever before, and no prospect of being cash flow positive for a very long time. A CEO that has so much spare time he can go work for another company, which looks like his career lifeboat from his current sinking ship. He has just invested $30000 of what some would consider Thor shareholder’s money in his new lifeboat, Blackfire, when he could buy Thor shares for cheaper than any time he has been involved with them.
If Thor can raise the million or so dollars it needs for the next quarter, what price will that be at? 0.06c, maybe 0.05c? At 0.05c that’ll be over 1.1 billion shares on issue and almost 20% of issued share capital for just over one quarter’s expenses. Then what will be achieved with that money? They may prove that they can increase the pit angle, mine life and lower the waste material, but will certainly need to recalculate their previous mining estimates with a lower tungsten price and higher molybdenum processing costs.
If that doesn’t help attract an off-take they will need to raise more capital (provided they can) at a terminal rate. If costs continue at the same rate and the share price doesn’t appreciate the company could dilute 40- 50% in one year, if anyone will give them money.

If no one will give them money then what? Suspension, liquidation?

A possible reason for lack of off-takes is that metals companies have already reached agreements with other Tungsten mines. The price has been dropping and they don’t want to allow another supply of Tungsten into the market, especially from a mine which is so susceptible to any downward movement in the tungsten price.

Now that’s a very negative look at Thor.

Some possible saviours could be an off-take agreement, a metals company could buy Thor out for probably around $10-15 million which would bring the share price up to 1.1-1.6c.

An agreement could be made to get Spring Hill going but I can’t see this happening for quite some time.

Dundas needs funds, a new agreement with its partners, plus an extension on the current tenement grants which expire on the 6/4/14, and there is a possibility they won’t get them extended for a lack of exploration in the time they have had them.

There is definitely potential to make some good profits for a new investor if things work out, but I fear for the long timers a large portion of our investments may be gone. As Sugadante suggested, maybe 1.6c is the highest we can expect off good news. It may be a good high risk investment for a new shareholder, but for us long time holders, a disaster.