hopeless case, page-5

Hi Guys

I'm in a similar position with respect to my holding in Key, in that I'm not so confident the price will hold up. But I've decided to hang on until we get a result from Cyrene because I think if the result is good it will provide a great deal of impetus to the SP given the location of the well. Also I think now that they have started finding oil in the region, the odds of further discoveries using the updated geological picture and modern exploration techniques are vastly improved. Most big oil finds in a region occur early on in the exploration process.

Anyway, don't hold your breath on the spud date. I'm pretty sure the well will not spud until the Ensign rig is released from Buru's Ungani North well, but is likely to spud prior to Jan 1.

Yes, I know it's a different rig but one of the directors of Buru needs to exercise a $hitload of options before the end of December and he cant do this whilst a well is drilling in which Buru have an interest due to their trading policy. Take this with a grain of salt if you like, but I'm not expecting Cyrene to spud until after they have finished testing Ungani North and the rig is released. At least this is the way I hope it will pan out given my more substantial holding in BRU. You can bet your life they'll think of a reason to release the rig before the New Year though, even if it means the testing is incomplete.

As it stands though, Ungani North will probably finish within a couple of weeks and Key will probably come up with some other lame excuse, such as inclement weather or a missing drill bit or something, as to why the spud of Cyrene has to be delayed for this period. Note that they have been very vague about the spud date in their announcements, even though they seem be optimistic about it happening soon-my take on this is that the vagueness comes from their dealings with Buru.

These shenanigans are bloody annoying. Decent directors would be straight up about this stuff.

Just my 2c worth.