I suspect that actually there isn`t much real difference between the analyst expectations and company guidance. Remember that this is the first guidance that management has come out with for this financial year, and it would not surprise if they released a number that they were certain that they could achieve.
Further out, there remains substantial growth potential. Even allowing for coking coal prices to come back to US$75 and thermal coal to say US$50, expanding production will still deliver significant earnings growth over the next few years.
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