good news, page-26

sagh, like I said in my last post it is too early to make any informed guesses but here are a few numbers for fun. EXE is still all about the potential.

Point number 1. The big picture

http://geology.com/usgs/oil-shale/australia-oil-shale.shtml

the above link is from very old data gathered in the 1980s.

Toolebuc shale is 484,000 sq kilometers and according to this report contains 1.7 TRILLION barrels of oil. EXE leases are roughly a tenth of that. I have no idea of distribution but for the sake of our wild guesstimates lets say EXE has 170 billion barrels (tenth of 1.7 trillion). But here's the thing. under the old rules this was a low grade resource but not so much now with the new fraccing technology. The other thing is that the Bakken shale in Nth Dakota started with a wild ball park figure like this but was very largely upgraded when all the oil companies flocked there and started pouring $$$ into exploration. In addition to this EXE has been talking about 31 Tcf csg gas. But at this stage I treat that as rhetoric.

Point number 2. Katherine conventional oil

The company claims to be sitting on 206 million barrels of P50 OIP. They did drilling here last year. The tricky part is that it is oil in place . so who knows what can be recovered of that ?? But let's make something up for fun. Let's say they can extract 20 million barrels...less than 10%. 10 mil belongs to Exoma and 10 mill to CNOOC. Lets work with oil at $80/barrel and let's say half that goes in extraction and other costs

10 mill x 40 = $400 mill

if all the EXEOA ops get converted (which will mean a further 17 odd mill of cash for EXE to use for development) then the register would have 600 mill shares.

This estimate would represent 66c/share of value. This is just for katherine ONLY using only a small portion of the OIP.

Point 3 Bessies 1 unconventional oil and gas

Bessies was the other point of interest for me from last years work. Results there suggest that area has a oil and gas distribution similar to the Bakken. But it is just one location and for that reason I look forward to results from Sancho, Winton and Rocky Creek 1 and 2. At this stage I could not put a value at all on this. The best I can do is remind you how exciting the Bakken is. There are many articles and videos on the Bakken but just for fun here is one I saw today on market watch. This will give you an idea of how huge the Bakken phenomena is. If even just half of ATP 999P turns out to be as prospective as the Bakken then EXE will rock and roll

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-play-the-bakken-boom-2012-07-02?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

There is a long way to go I know and my numbers are probably meaningless as there are still far too many variables but I do like the idea of being in on the ground floor....and in the meantime we wait for a decent run of good drilling weather.