sense of perception, page-12

Here's a post I made in about May last year - I still think it's OK (+/- 20%)




"EMS mgt commitments made on the 29/03/11 state..

..companys strategy is to commercialise ArTiMist via a Trade Sale, JV or licensing agreement into the global market for malaria treatments."

So, here's a very hypothetical trade-sale valuation for ArtiMist technology, and with some (ill-informed) assumptions.

1. There are 228 million doses of ACT's distributed for P.falciparem each year.
(http://www.rollbackmalaria.org/keyfacts.html)

The World Health Organisation has recommended that artemisinin combination therapies (ACT) be first-line therapy for P. falciparum malaria worldwide.Combinations are effective because the artemisinin component kills the majority of parasites at the start of the treatment while the more slowly eliminated partner drug clears the remaining parasites
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemisinin)

2. If 10% of P.falciparem cases have gastrointestinal complications (which make the oral versions of ACT's less effective and the EMS sublingual-drug-delivery-system more effective) this results in 22.8 million case per annum. This ratio (of uncomplicated vs gastrointestinal complicated cases) is pure speculation on my behalf and I have no data to support this.

3. A course of ACT's for an adult is USD6
(http://www.rollbackmalaria.org/keyfacts.html)

4. If 10% is attributable to ProtoPharma under licence (again no data to support this)

5. The drug delivery technology patent is good for 5 years (no data again)

6. Finally (and most importantly) the Phase III results are successful

If so, then a potential market is $136.8 million per annum for 5 years. This equates to USD684 million for the duration of the patent. Take out the licence component to ProtoPharma and that leaves USD615 million.

If EMS sells the technology for 50% (more speculation) of potential revenue, then an estimated trade sale of about USD300 million may fit.

Current market cap of EMS is AUD17million (at 2.7c). Based on the trade-sale speculation above, the potential share price is worth 47c (assuming USD/AUD parity).

bluebush

Disclaimer: This is never rely upon information for investment purposes"